Non-Communicable Diseases
We coordinate Non-Communicable Disease Risk Factor Collaboration (NCD-RisC), a global network of health scientists and practitioners who collaborate to provide rigorous and timely global data on risk factors for NCDs. We also are a partner in NCD Countdown 2030, an independent collaboration to inform policies that aim to reduce the worldwide burden of NCDs, and to ensure accountability towards this aim, especially towards SDG target 3.4. We also study the variations in NCDs across populations and over time, to better understand the role of public health and clinical interventions in disease trends and patterns. The work is done in close collaboration with the World Health Organization.
Related Publications
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James E Bennett, Olivia N O'Driscoll, Gretchen A Stevens, Nestor Aldea-Ramos, Freddie Bray, Farshad Farzadfar, Michel Guillot, Jürgen Rehm, Vikram Patel, Gill Livingston, Pablo Perel, Shekhar Saxena, Margaret E Kruk, Ole F Norheim, Rachel Nugent, Jean Claude Mbanya, Jonathan Pearson-Stuttard, Amirhossein Takian, Leanne M Riley, Robert Beaglehole, Katie Dain, Majid Ezzati 2025, ISBN: 0140-6736. ()
@article{Bennett2025,
title = {Benchmarking progress in non-communicable diseases: a global analysis of cause-specific mortality from 2001 to 2019}, author = {James E Bennett and Olivia N O'Driscoll and Gretchen A Stevens and Nestor Aldea-Ramos and Freddie Bray and Farshad Farzadfar and Michel Guillot and J\"{u}rgen Rehm and Vikram Patel and Gill Livingston and Pablo Perel and Shekhar Saxena and Margaret E Kruk and Ole F Norheim and Rachel Nugent and Jean Claude Mbanya and Jonathan Pearson-Stuttard and Amirhossein Takian and Leanne M Riley and Robert Beaglehole and Katie Dain and Majid Ezzati}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(25)01388-1}, isbn = {0140-6736}, year = {2025}, date = {2025-09-10}, abstract = {Summary Background Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) have received substantial policy attention globally and in most countries. Our aim was to quantify how much NCD mortality changed from 2010 to 2019 in different countries, especially compared with the preceding decade and with the best-performing country in each region, and the specific NCD causes of death that contributed to change. Methods We used data on NCD mortality by sex, age group, and underlying cause of death for 185 countries and territories from the 2021 WHO Global Health Estimates. Our primary outcome was the probability of dying from an NCD between birth and age 80 years in the absence of competing causes of death, and was calculated using age-specific death rates from NCDs and lifetable methods. We calculated change in the probability of death as the difference between values in the final and first year of each period (2001\textendash10 and 2010\textendash19). For 51 countries with high-quality mortality data and 12 countries with large populations within their region, we used the Horiuchi method of decomposition to calculate how much specific causes of death and 5-year age groups contributed towards: (1) increases or decreases in NCD mortality from 2010 to 2019; (2) improvements or deteriorations compared with the preceding decade (2001\textendash10); and (3) differences from the country that had the largest reduction in each region. Findings From 2010 to 2019, the probability of dying from an NCD between birth and age 80 years decreased in 152 (82%) of 185 countries for females and in 147 (79%) countries for males; it increased in the remaining 33 (18%) countries for females and 38 (21%) countries for males. The countries where NCD mortality declined for females accounted for 72% of the world female population in 2019, and those where NCD mortality declined for males accounted for 73% of the world male population. NCD mortality declined in all high-income western countries, with Denmark experiencing the largest decline for both sexes and the USA experiencing the smallest decline. Among the largest countries in other regions, NCD mortality declined for both sexes in China, Egypt, Nigeria, Russia, and Brazil, and increased for both sexes in India and Papua New Guinea. On average, females in countries in the central Asia, Middle East and north Africa region had the greatest reduction in NCD mortality followed by those in central and eastern Europe. For males, the largest reduction was among countries in central and eastern Europe, followed by those in central Asia, Middle East and north Africa. The smallest declines were those in the Pacific Island nations. Circulatory diseases were the greatest contributors to declines in NCD mortality from 2010 to 2019 in most countries, with some cancers (eg, stomach and colorectal cancers for both sexes, cervical and breast cancers for females, and lung and prostate cancers for males) also contributing towards lower NCD mortality in 2019 than in 2010 in many countries. Neuropsychiatric conditions and pancreatic and liver cancers contributed towards higher NCD mortality from 2010 to 2019 in most countries. In some countries, NCD mortality in working and older (≥65 years) ages changed in the same direction leading to large overall declines or increases; in others, it changed in opposite directions, diminishing the magnitude of the overall change. In 75 (41%) of 185 countries for females and in 73 (39%) countries for males, the change in NCD mortality from 2010 to 2019 was an improvement (ie, larger decline, smaller increase, or reversal of an increase) compared with the change from 2001 to 2010. These countries accounted for 29% and 63% of the world female and male population, respectively, and included both sexes in Russia and Egypt, and males in China, India, and Brazil. Decadal changes saw a deterioration (ie, smaller decline, larger increase, or reversal of a decline) in the remaining 110 (59%) countries for females and 112 (61%) countries for males, including in both sexes in the USA, Nigeria, and Papua New Guinea, and females in China, India, and Brazil. Change from 2010 to 2019 saw deterioration in direction or size compared with the preceding decade for both sexes in most high-income western countries, most countries in Latin America and the Caribbean, and in east and southeast Asia, and for females in south Asia. There was a decadal improvement in the direction or size of change for many countries in central and eastern Europe (eg, Russia) and central Asia, and in parts of the Middle East and north Africa. Improvements or deteriorations in the direction or size of change in NCD mortality between the two decades resulted from multiple NCD causes of death. Among causes of death, the decline in mortality from circulatory diseases was smaller from 2010 to 2019 than from 2001 to 2010 in most countries, except in countries in central and eastern Europe and some countries in central Asia, where these declines were larger from 2010 to 2019 than from 2001 to 2010. Change in lung cancer saw a decadal improvement in many countries, especially for males, and many other cancers saw a mix of improvement and deterioration. Interpretation From 2010 to 2019, NCD mortality declined in four of every five countries in the world. These improvements were not as large as the preceding decade for most countries, driven by smaller declines in mortality from multiple NCDs. Funding UK Medical Research Council, UK National Institute for Health and Care Research, and NCD Alliance.}, keywords = {}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } Summary
Background Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) have received substantial policy attention globally and in most countries. Our aim was to quantify how much NCD mortality changed from 2010 to 2019 in different countries, especially compared with the preceding decade and with the best-performing country in each region, and the specific NCD causes of death that contributed to change. Methods We used data on NCD mortality by sex, age group, and underlying cause of death for 185 countries and territories from the 2021 WHO Global Health Estimates. Our primary outcome was the probability of dying from an NCD between birth and age 80 years in the absence of competing causes of death, and was calculated using age-specific death rates from NCDs and lifetable methods. We calculated change in the probability of death as the difference between values in the final and first year of each period (2001–10 and 2010–19). For 51 countries with high-quality mortality data and 12 countries with large populations within their region, we used the Horiuchi method of decomposition to calculate how much specific causes of death and 5-year age groups contributed towards: (1) increases or decreases in NCD mortality from 2010 to 2019; (2) improvements or deteriorations compared with the preceding decade (2001–10); and (3) differences from the country that had the largest reduction in each region. Findings From 2010 to 2019, the probability of dying from an NCD between birth and age 80 years decreased in 152 (82%) of 185 countries for females and in 147 (79%) countries for males; it increased in the remaining 33 (18%) countries for females and 38 (21%) countries for males. The countries where NCD mortality declined for females accounted for 72% of the world female population in 2019, and those where NCD mortality declined for males accounted for 73% of the world male population. NCD mortality declined in all high-income western countries, with Denmark experiencing the largest decline for both sexes and the USA experiencing the smallest decline. Among the largest countries in other regions, NCD mortality declined for both sexes in China, Egypt, Nigeria, Russia, and Brazil, and increased for both sexes in India and Papua New Guinea. On average, females in countries in the central Asia, Middle East and north Africa region had the greatest reduction in NCD mortality followed by those in central and eastern Europe. For males, the largest reduction was among countries in central and eastern Europe, followed by those in central Asia, Middle East and north Africa. The smallest declines were those in the Pacific Island nations. Circulatory diseases were the greatest contributors to declines in NCD mortality from 2010 to 2019 in most countries, with some cancers (eg, stomach and colorectal cancers for both sexes, cervical and breast cancers for females, and lung and prostate cancers for males) also contributing towards lower NCD mortality in 2019 than in 2010 in many countries. Neuropsychiatric conditions and pancreatic and liver cancers contributed towards higher NCD mortality from 2010 to 2019 in most countries. In some countries, NCD mortality in working and older (≥65 years) ages changed in the same direction leading to large overall declines or increases; in others, it changed in opposite directions, diminishing the magnitude of the overall change. In 75 (41%) of 185 countries for females and in 73 (39%) countries for males, the change in NCD mortality from 2010 to 2019 was an improvement (ie, larger decline, smaller increase, or reversal of an increase) compared with the change from 2001 to 2010. These countries accounted for 29% and 63% of the world female and male population, respectively, and included both sexes in Russia and Egypt, and males in China, India, and Brazil. Decadal changes saw a deterioration (ie, smaller decline, larger increase, or reversal of a decline) in the remaining 110 (59%) countries for females and 112 (61%) countries for males, including in both sexes in the USA, Nigeria, and Papua New Guinea, and females in China, India, and Brazil. Change from 2010 to 2019 saw deterioration in direction or size compared with the preceding decade for both sexes in most high-income western countries, most countries in Latin America and the Caribbean, and in east and southeast Asia, and for females in south Asia. There was a decadal improvement in the direction or size of change for many countries in central and eastern Europe (eg, Russia) and central Asia, and in parts of the Middle East and north Africa. Improvements or deteriorations in the direction or size of change in NCD mortality between the two decades resulted from multiple NCD causes of death. Among causes of death, the decline in mortality from circulatory diseases was smaller from 2010 to 2019 than from 2001 to 2010 in most countries, except in countries in central and eastern Europe and some countries in central Asia, where these declines were larger from 2010 to 2019 than from 2001 to 2010. Change in lung cancer saw a decadal improvement in many countries, especially for males, and many other cancers saw a mix of improvement and deterioration. Interpretation From 2010 to 2019, NCD mortality declined in four of every five countries in the world. These improvements were not as large as the preceding decade for most countries, driven by smaller declines in mortality from multiple NCDs. Funding UK Medical Research Council, UK National Institute for Health and Care Research, and NCD Alliance. |
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Lee-Boey JS, Tan JK, Lim ZF, Zaccardi F, Khunti K, Ezzati M, Gregg EW, Lim LL. Obesity-related glomerulopathy: How it happens and future perspectives Diabetic Medicine, 42 (e70042), 2025. ()
@article{JS2025,
title = {Obesity-related glomerulopathy: How it happens and future perspectives}, author = {Lee-Boey JS, Tan JK, Lim ZF, Zaccardi F, Khunti K, Ezzati M, Gregg EW, Lim LL.}, doi = {10.1111/dme.70042}, year = {2025}, date = {2025-04-14}, journal = {Diabetic Medicine}, volume = {42}, number = {e70042}, abstract = {Obesity-related glomerulopathy (ORG) is an emerging complication of excess adiposity. Its incidence rises alongside the obesity pandemic. Up to 40% of individuals can be affected by ORG, irrespective of the status of glomerular filtration rate and albuminuria. ORG is a distinct histological diagnosis based on kidney biopsy, showing classical features of an enlarged glomerulus with and without focal segmental glomerulosclerosis in the perihilar region seen with all categories of obesity. About 10% of individuals with ORG may progress to end-stage kidney disease. The invasive nature of kidney biopsy highlights the need for non-invasive biomarkers for improved screening, diagnosis and risk prediction of ORG. These biomarkers may narrow the gaps in the management of ORG by improving: (1) screening, diagnosis and differentiation of ORG from non-ORG conditions; (2) risk prediction and stratification of individuals at risk of progression to end-stage kidney disease including the detection of trajectories of progression; (3) monitoring of treatment safety and effectiveness and (4) development of novel therapeutic targets. In the present review, we discussed the pathophysiology, emerging biomarkers (such as kidney injury molecule-1 [KIM-1], uromodulin, klotho, circulating microRNA-21 [miR-21]) and future treatment strategies (metabolic surgery, sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors, incretin-based therapy and non-steroidal mineralocorticoid antagonists) of ORG.}, keywords = {}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } Obesity-related glomerulopathy (ORG) is an emerging complication of excess adiposity. Its incidence rises alongside the obesity pandemic. Up to 40% of individuals can be affected by ORG, irrespective of the status of glomerular filtration rate and albuminuria. ORG is a distinct histological diagnosis based on kidney biopsy, showing classical features of an enlarged glomerulus with and without focal segmental glomerulosclerosis in the perihilar region seen with all categories of obesity. About 10% of individuals with ORG may progress to end-stage kidney disease. The invasive nature of kidney biopsy highlights the need for non-invasive biomarkers for improved screening, diagnosis and risk prediction of ORG. These biomarkers may narrow the gaps in the management of ORG by improving: (1) screening, diagnosis and differentiation of ORG from non-ORG conditions; (2) risk prediction and stratification of individuals at risk of progression to end-stage kidney disease including the detection of trajectories of progression; (3) monitoring of treatment safety and effectiveness and (4) development of novel therapeutic targets. In the present review, we discussed the pathophysiology, emerging biomarkers (such as kidney injury molecule-1 [KIM-1], uromodulin, klotho, circulating microRNA-21 [miR-21]) and future treatment strategies (metabolic surgery, sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors, incretin-based therapy and non-steroidal mineralocorticoid antagonists) of ORG.
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NCD Risk Factor Collaboration (NCD-RisC) Lancet, 404 (10467), pp. 2077-2093, 2024. ()
@article{(NCD-RisC02024,
title = {Worldwide trends in diabetes prevalence and treatment from 1990 to 2022: a pooled analysis of 1108 population-representative studies with 141 million participants}, author = {NCD Risk Factor Collaboration (NCD-RisC)}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(24)02317-1}, year = {2024}, date = {2024-11-23}, journal = {Lancet}, volume = {404}, number = {10467}, pages = {2077-2093}, keywords = {}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } |
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Xinli Song, Bin Zhou, Sarah Baird, Chunling Lu, Majid Ezzati, Li Chen The Lancet Public Health, 9 (12), pp. E1025-E1036, 2024. ()
@article{Song2024,
title = {Trends and inequalities in thinness and obesity among Chinese children and adolescents: evidence from seven national school surveys between 1985 and 2019}, author = {Xinli Song and Bin Zhou and Sarah Baird and Chunling Lu and Majid Ezzati and Li Chen }, doi = { 10.1016/S2468-2667(24)00211-1}, year = {2024}, date = {2024-10-28}, journal = {The Lancet Public Health}, volume = {9}, number = {12}, pages = {E1025-E1036}, keywords = {}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } |
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NCD Risk Factor Collaboration (NCD-RisC) Lancet, 404 (10455), pp. p851-863, 2024. ()
@article{(NCD-RisC)2024bb,
title = {General and abdominal adiposity and hypertension in eight world regions: a pooled analysis of 837 population-based studies with 7·5 million participants}, author = {NCD Risk Factor Collaboration (NCD-RisC)}, doi = { 10.1016/S0140-6736(24)01405-3}, year = {2024}, date = {2024-08-31}, journal = {Lancet}, volume = {404}, number = {10455}, pages = {p851-863}, keywords = {}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } |
