Health Forecasting

Forecasts mortality and life expectancy are needed to plan for health and social services and pensions. We develop novel methods for mortality forecasting, and for analysing how policy scenarios, for example those related to disease prevention, may modify the forecasted trends, at scales from subnational to global. Recent work has expanded to forecasting using Bayesian model ensembles, which have not been frequently  used in population health and incorporate uncertainty about the choice of models themselves.

Related Publications

18 entries « 1 of 4 »

Davies B, Parkes BL, Bennett J, Fecht D, Blangiardo M, Ezzati M, Elliott P

Community factors and excess mortality in first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in England

Nature Communications, 12 (3755), 2021.

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NCD Countdown 2030 collaborators

NCD Countdown 2030: pathways to achieving Sustainable Development Goal target 3.4

The Lancet, 396 (10255), pp. 918-934, 2020.

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Kontis V, Bennett JE, Rashid T, Parks RM, Pearson-Stuttard J, Guillot M, Asaria P, Zhou B, Battaglini M, Corsetti G, McKee M, Di Cesare M, Mathers CD, Ezzati M

Magnitude, demographics and dynamics of the effect of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic on all-cause mortality in 21 industrialized countries

Nature Medicine, 26 , pp. 1919–1928, 2020.

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Kontis V, Bennett JE, Parks RM, Rashid T, Pearson-Stuttard J, Asaria P, Guillot M, Blangiardo M, Ezzati E

Age- and sex-specific total mortality impacts of the early weeks of the Covid-19 pandemic in England and Wales: Application of a Bayesian model ensemble to mortality statistics.

medRxiv, 2020.

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Boulieri A, Bennett JE, Blangiardo M

A Bayesian mixture modeling approach for public health surveillance

Biostatistics, 2018.

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18 entries « 1 of 4 »
Health Forecasting