Health Forecasting
Forecasts mortality and life expectancy are needed to plan for health and social services and pensions. We develop novel methods for mortality forecasting, and for analysing how policy scenarios, for example those related to disease prevention, may modify the forecasted trends, at scales from subnational to global. Recent work has expanded to forecasting using Bayesian model ensembles, which have not been frequently used in population health and incorporate uncertainty about the choice of models themselves.
Related Publications
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Development of an empirically calibrated model of gastric cancer in two high-risk countries Cancer Epidemiology, Biomarkers & Prevention, 17 (5), pp. 1179-1187, 2008. |
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Mortality and greenhouse gas impacts of biomass and petroleum energy futures in Africa Science, 308 (5718), pp. 98-103, 2005. |
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Comparative quantification of health risks: conceptual framework and methodological issues Ezzati M; Lopez AD; Rodgers A; Murray CJL (Ed.): Comparative Quantification of Health Risks: The Global and Regional Burden of Disease Attributable to Selected Major Risk Factors, pp. 1-38, Geneva, 2004. |
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Comparative quantification of health risks: conceptual framework and methodological issues Population Health Metrics, 1 , pp. 1, 2003. |
