Health Forecasting

Forecasts mortality and life expectancy are needed to plan for health and social services and pensions. We develop novel methods for mortality forecasting, and for analysing how policy scenarios, for example those related to disease prevention, may modify the forecasted trends, at scales from subnational to global. Recent work has expanded to forecasting using Bayesian model ensembles, which have not been frequently  used in population health and incorporate uncertainty about the choice of models themselves.

Related Publications

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NCD Countdown 2030 collaborators

NCD Countdown 2030: worldwide trends in non-communicable disease mortality and progress towards Sustainable Development Goal target 3.4

Lancet, vol. 392, pp. 1072-1088, 2018.

Kontis V, Bennett JE, Mathers CD, Li G, Foreman K, Ezzati M

Future life expectancy in 35 industrialised countries: projections with a Bayesian model ensemble

Lancet, vol. 389, no. 10076, pp. 1323-1335, 2017.

Foreman KJ, Li G, Best N, Ezzati M

Small area forecasts of cause-specific mortality: application of a Bayesian hierarchical model to US vital registration data

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series C (Applied Statistics), vol. 66, no. 1, pp. 121-139, 2017.

Bennett JE, Li G, Kontis V, Foreman K, Ezzati M

Future inequalities in life expectancy in England and Wales – Authors' reply

Lancet, vol. 386, no. 10011, pp. 2391-2392, 2015.

Kontis V, Mathers CD, Bonita R, Stevens GA, Rehm J, Shield KD, Riley LM, Poznyak V, Jabbour S, Garg RM, Hennis A, Fouad HM, Beaglehole R, Ezzati M

Regional contributions of six preventable risk factors to achieving the 25 × 25 non-communicable disease mortality reduction target: a modelling study

Lancet Global Health, vol. 3, no. 12, pp. e746–e757, 2015.

17 entries « ‹ 2 of 4 › »
Health Forecasting