Health Forecasting

Forecasts mortality and life expectancy are needed to plan for health and social services and pensions. We develop novel sophisticated methods for mortality forecasting, and for analysing how policy scenarios, for example those related to disease prevention, may modify the forecasted trends, at scales from subnational to global. Recent work has expanded to forecasting using Bayesian model ensembles, which have been rarely used in population health and incorporate uncertainty about the choice of models themselves.

Related Publications

13 entries « 3 of 3 »

Bailis R, Ezzati M, Kammen DM

Mortality and greenhouse gas impacts of biomass and petroleum energy futures in Africa

Science, 308 (5718), pp. 98-103, 2005.

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Murray CJL, Ezzati M, Lopez AD, Rodgers A, Vander Hoorn S

Comparative quantification of health risks: conceptual framework and methodological issues

Ezzati M; Lopez AD; Rodgers A; Murray CJL (Ed.): Comparative Quantification of Health Risks: The Global and Regional Burden of Disease Attributable to Selected Major Risk Factors, pp. 1-38, Geneva, 2004.

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Murray CJL, Ezzati M, Lopez AD, Rodgers A, Vander Hoorn S

Comparative quantification of health risks: conceptual framework and methodological issues

Population Health Metrics, 1 , pp. 1, 2003.

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13 entries « 3 of 3 »
Health Forecasting