Health Forecasting

Forecasts mortality and life expectancy are needed to plan for health and social services and pensions. We develop novel sophisticated methods for mortality forecasting, and for analysing how policy scenarios, for example those related to disease prevention, may modify the forecasted trends, at scales from subnational to global. Recent work has expanded to forecasting using Bayesian model ensembles, which have been rarely used in population health and incorporate uncertainty about the choice of models themselves.

Related Publications

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Bennett JE, Li G, Foreman K, Best N, Kontis V, Pearson C, Hambly P, Ezzati M

The future of life expectancy and life expectancy inequalities in England and Wales: Bayesian spatiotemporal forecasting

Lancet, 386 (9989), pp. 163-170, 2015.

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Pan SC, Ku CC, Kao D, Ezzati M, Fang CT, Lin HH

Effect of diabetes on tuberculosis control in 13 countries with high tuberculosis: a modelling study

Lancet Diabetes & Endocrinology, 3 (5), pp. 323-330, 2015.

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Kontis V, Mathers CD, Rehm J, Stevens GA, Shield KD, Bonita R, Riley LM, Poznyak V, Beaglehole R, Ezzati M

Contribution of six risk factors to achieving the 25×25 non-communicable disease mortality reduction target: a modelling study

Lancet, 384 (9941), pp. 427-437, 2014.

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Lin HH, Murray MM, Cohen T, Colijn C, Ezzati M

Effects of smoking and solid-fuel use on COPD, lung cancer, and tuberculosis in China: a time-based, multiple-risk-factor modelling study

Lancet, 372 (9648), pp. 1473-1483, 2008.

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Yeh JM, Kuntz KM, Ezzati M, Hur C, Kong J, Goldie SJ

Development of an empirically calibrated model of gastric cancer in two high-risk countries

Cancer Epidemiology, Biomarkers & Prevention, 17 (5), pp. 1179-1187, 2008.

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13 entries « 2 of 3 »
Health Forecasting