Health Forecasting

Forecasts mortality and life expectancy are needed to plan for health and social services and pensions. We develop novel sophisticated methods for mortality forecasting, and for analysing how policy scenarios, for example those related to disease prevention, may modify the forecasted trends, at scales from subnational to global. Recent work has expanded to forecasting using Bayesian model ensembles, which have been rarely used in population health and incorporate uncertainty about the choice of models themselves.

Related Publications

12 entries « 2 of 3 »

Pan SC, Ku CC, Kao D, Ezzati M, Fang CT, Lin HH.

Effect of diabetes on tuberculosis control in 13 countries with high tuberculosis: a modelling study.

Lancet Diabetes & Endocrinology, 2015, 3(5): 323-330.

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Kontis V, Mathers CD, Rehm J, Stevens GA, Shield KD, Bonita R, Riley LM, Poznyak V, Beaglehole R, Ezzati M.

Contribution of six risk factors to achieving the 25×25 non-communicable disease mortality reduction target: a modelling study.

Lancet, 2014, 384(9941): 427-437.

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Lin HH, Murray MM, Cohen T, Colijn C, Ezzati M.

Effects of smoking and solid-fuel use on COPD, lung cancer, and tuberculosis in China: a time-based, multiple-risk-factor modelling study.

Lancet, 2008, 372(9648): 1473-1483.

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Yeh JM, Kuntz KM, Ezzati M, Hur C, Kong J, Goldie SJ.

Development of an empirically calibrated model of gastric cancer in two high-risk countries.

Cancer Epidemiology, Biomarkers & Prevention, 2008, 17(5): 1179-1187.

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Bailis R, Ezzati M, Kammen DM.

Mortality and greenhouse gas impacts of biomass and petroleum energy futures in Africa.

Science, 2005, 308(5718): 98-103.

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12 entries « 2 of 3 »
Health Forecasting