Health Forecasting

Forecasts mortality and life expectancy are needed to plan for health and social services and pensions. We develop novel sophisticated methods for mortality forecasting, and for analysing how policy scenarios, for example those related to disease prevention, may modify the forecasted trends, at scales from subnational to global. Recent work has expanded to forecasting using Bayesian model ensembles, which have been rarely used in population health and incorporate uncertainty about the choice of models themselves.

Related Publications

12 entries « 1 of 3 »

Kontis V*, Bennett JE*, Mathers CD, Li G, Foreman K, Ezzati M.

Future life expectancy in 35 industrialised countries: projections with a Bayesian model ensemble.

Lancet, 2017, 389(10076): 1323-1335.

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Foreman KJ, Li G, Best N, Ezzati M.

Small area forecasts of cause-specific mortality: application of a Bayesian hierarchical model to US vital registration data.

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series C (Applied Statistics), 2017, 66(1): 121-139.

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Bennett JE, Li G, Kontis V, Foreman K, Ezzati M.

Future inequalities in life expectancy in England and Wales – Authors' reply.

Lancet, 2015, 386(10011): 2391-2392.

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Kontis V, Mathers CD, Bonita R, Stevens GA, Rehm J, Shield KD, Riley LM, Poznyak V, Jabbour S, Garg RM, Hennis A, Fouad HM, Beaglehole R, Ezzati M.

Regional contributions of six preventable risk factors to achieving the 25 × 25 non-communicable disease mortality reduction target: a modelling study.

Lancet Global Health, 2015, 3(12): e746–e757.

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Bennett JE*, Li G*, Foreman K, Best N, Kontis V, Pearson C, Hambly P, Ezzati M. * Equal contributions

The future of life expectancy and life expectancy inequalities in England and Wales: Bayesian spatiotemporal forecasting.

Lancet, 2015, 386(9989): 163-170.

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12 entries « 1 of 3 »
Health Forecasting