Health Forecasting

Forecasts mortality and life expectancy are needed to plan for health and social services and pensions. We develop novel sophisticated methods for mortality forecasting, and for analysing how policy scenarios, for example those related to disease prevention, may modify the forecasted trends, at scales from subnational to global. Recent work has expanded to forecasting using Bayesian model ensembles, which have been rarely used in population health and incorporate uncertainty about the choice of models themselves.

Related Publications

15 entries « 1 of 3 »

Kontis V, Bennett JE, Rashid T, Parks RM, Pearson-Stuttard J, Guillot M, Asaria P, Zhou B, Battaglini M, Corsetti G, McKee M, Di Cesare M, Mathers CD, Ezzati M

Magnitude, demographics and dynamics of the impact of the first phase of the Covid-19 pandemic on all-cause mortality in 17 industrialised countries

medRxiv, 2020.

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Kontis V, Bennett JE, Parks RM, Rashid T, Pearson-Stuttard J, Asaria P, Guillot M, Blangiardo M, Ezzati E

Age- and sex-specific total mortality impacts of the early weeks of the Covid-19 pandemic in England and Wales: Application of a Bayesian model ensemble to mortality statistics.

medRxiv, 2020.

(Links | BibTeX | Altmetric)

Boulieri A, Bennett JE, Blangiardo M

A Bayesian mixture modeling approach for public health surveillance

Biostatistics, 2018.

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Kontis V, Bennett JE, Mathers CD, Li G, Foreman K, Ezzati M

Future life expectancy in 35 industrialised countries: projections with a Bayesian model ensemble

Lancet, 389 (10076), pp. 1323-1335, 2017.

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Foreman KJ, Li G, Best N, Ezzati M

Small area forecasts of cause-specific mortality: application of a Bayesian hierarchical model to US vital registration data

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series C (Applied Statistics), 66 (1), pp. 121-139, 2017.

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15 entries « 1 of 3 »
Health Forecasting